AlphaSignal533

Author

Xiaoya Dong, Yingxue Wang, Yueqi He

Published

April 21, 2025

Welcome to AplhaSignal533! Here is a short vedio introducing our website:

Mean Reversion Strategy

1. Strategy Overview

This strategy is based on mean reversion, under the assumption that prices of large-cap, liquid stocks tend to revert to their average levels. When prices deviate significantly from the mean, they are expected to revert: - Go long when prices are abnormally low and expected to rebound. - Go short when prices are abnormally high and expected to pull back.

In addition, we are interested in studying how leverage control affects strategy performance. Without constraint, excessive leverage may amplify returns in the short term, but it can also lead to extreme losses and unstable drawdowns, especially when signals are weak or noisy. Therefore, we compare the performance of the strategy with and without leverage control.


2. Portfolio Choice

We selected these 10 stocks for their strong sector representation, high liquidity, and market relevance. Each stock comes from a different major industry, ensuring diversification and reducing sector-specific risk.

Ticker Industry
1 AAPL Information Electronics
2 MSFT Information Technology
3 JPM Financial
4 XOM Energy
5 JNJ Healthcare
6 PG Consumer Staples
7 NVDA Semiconductors
8 CAT Industrial
9 HD Retail
10 AMZN Communication Services

3. Adjustment Method

  • Monthly portfolio adjustment based on re-ranking of stocks.
  • Stop-loss and take-profit mechanism: Each stock position is monitored during the holding month and is closed early if either a stop-loss or take-profit threshold is reached. If no trigger is hit, the stock is force-closed at the end of the month.

Scoring System

1. Technical Indicator Scoring System

Each stock is scored for both long and short setups based on the following indicators:

1.1 EMA Deviation (Delta) Calculation

The EMA deviation measures how far the current price is from its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It is calculated as: Δ = 100% × (Close − EMA₍₂₀₎) / EMA₍₂₀₎

Δ Range Short Score Long Score
1 > +5% 5 0
2 +3% – +5% 4 0
3 +1% – +3% 3 0
4 0 – +1% 2 0
5 < 0% 0 0
6 < –5% 0 5
7 –5% – –3% 0 4
8 –3% – –1% 0 3
9 –1% – 0% 0 2
10 > 0% 0 0
1.2 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

The MACD difference is calculated as: MACD difference = MACD line – Signal line

MACD_diff Range Short Score Long Score
1 > +1.5 5 0
2 +1.0 – +1.5 4 0
3 +0.5 – +1.0 3 0
4 +0.1 – +0.5 2 0
5 0 – +0.1 1 0
6 –0.1 – 0 0 1
7 –0.5 – –0.1 0 2
8 –1.0 – –0.5 0 3
9 –1.5 – –1.0 0 4
10 < –1.5 0 5
1.3 ADX (Average Directional Index)
ADX Value Range Explanation Score (Both Directions)
1 0–15 Very weak trend, sideways market 0
2 15–20 Weak trend, reversal possible 2
3 20–30 Moderate trend, ideal for reversal 5
4 30–40 Strong trend, caution 2
5 > 40 Very strong trend, high risk 0
1.4 ATR (Average True Range)
ATR Value Range Explanation Score (Both Directions)
1 > 30 Extremely high volatility, avoid trading 0
2 20 – 30 High volatility, elevated risk 2
3 10 – 20 Ideal volatility level 5
4 5 – 10 Moderate-low volatility, acceptable 4
5 < 5 Very low volatility, may stall 2

2. Non-Technical Indicator Scoring System

2.1 Implied Volatility
IV Percentile Range Long Score Short Score Explanation
1 < 10% 5 0 Extremely calm, likely to rebound, long favorable
2 10% – 30% 4 1 Relatively calm, supports long
3 30% – 70% 2 2 Neutral volatility, direction uncertain
4 70% – 90% 1 4 Mild panic, possible short-term drop
5 > 90% 0 5 Extreme panic, suitable for shorting
2.2 10–2 Yield Spread
10–2 Spread Range (%) Long Score Short Score Explanation
1 > 1.5 5 0 Large spread, optimistic economy, strong rever...
2 0.5 – 1.5 4 1 Mild steepness, supports long positions
3 –0.5 – 0.5 2 2 Neutral curve, unclear direction
4 –1.5 – –0.5 1 4 Significant inversion, growing concern
5 < –1.5 0 5 Severe inversion, market panic, short-favoring...

3. Determining Trade Direction & Weight Allocation

For each stock, we compute both long and short scores as weighted sums of indicator scores:

Total_Long  = 0.25 * EMA_long + 0.25 * MACD_long + 0.10 * ADX + 0.10 * ATR + 0.15 * IV_long + 0.15 * Yield_long
Total_Short = 0.25 * EMA_short + 0.25 * MACD_short + 0.10 * ADX + 0.10 * ATR + 0.15 * IV_short + 0.15 * Yield_short

The direction (LONG/SHORT) is determined based on which score is higher. The higher score is used to allocate capital.

Option A: Without Leverage Control
  • All stocks are scored.
  • Normalize all non-zero scores to sum to 1:
weight_i = score_i / sum(|scores|)
  • Pros: Simple.
  • Cons: May lead to excessive total exposure, especially if all assets are scored as strong.
Option B: With Leverage Control
  • Split stocks into long group and short group based on score sign.
  • Normalize within group, then assign proportions:
# Assume MAX_GROSS_LEVERAGE = 1.5, max per stock = 0.2
# long positions account for 60% of the total leverage
long_weights  = score_i / sum_long * 0.6 * MAX_GROSS_LEVERAGE
# short positions account for 40% of the total leverage
short_weights = score_i / sum_short * 0.4 * MAX_GROSS_LEVERAGE
  • Cap each stock to ±0.2 and re-normalize total exposure to 1.0
  • Pros: Controlled leverage, avoids overweight.
  • Cons: More complex.

4. Execution

  • Entry is performed at the first hourly timestamp of the period.
  • Stop-loss and take-profit are set at dynamic thresholds derived from price volatility: entry_price*(1±vol_last_month).
  • If either threshold is hit intra-month, the position is closed early. Otherwise, all positions are force-closed at month end.

This strategy allows for clear comparison between raw signal-driven allocation and a risk-controlled variant, helping evaluate the cost and benefit of leverage in short-horizon mean reversion trading.

Strategy Outcome

The strategy produces a blotter and ledger to record all trade signals and executed positions based on the computed indicator scores.

Below is a placeholder for the interactive portfolio visualization. It will display results such as:

  • Capital allocation weights (long/short)
  • Historical position tracking
  • Cumulative return curve

Blotter

Original(without controlling lever)

trd_prd AAPL weight MSFT weight JPM weight XOM weight JNJ weight PG weight NVDA weight CAT weight HD weight AMZN weight AAPL entry timestamp MSFT entry timestamp JPM entry timestamp XOM entry timestamp JNJ entry timestamp PG entry timestamp NVDA entry timestamp CAT entry timestamp HD entry timestamp AMZN entry timestamp AAPL exit timestamp MSFT exit timestamp JPM exit timestamp XOM exit timestamp JNJ exit timestamp PG exit timestamp NVDA exit timestamp CAT exit timestamp HD exit timestamp AMZN exit timestamp AAPL entry price MSFT entry price JPM entry price XOM entry price JNJ entry price PG entry price NVDA entry price CAT entry price HD entry price AMZN entry price AAPL exit price MSFT exit price JPM exit price XOM exit price JNJ exit price PG exit price NVDA exit price CAT exit price HD exit price AMZN exit price
2024.11 0.106719 0.124506 -0.088933 0.118577 0.098814 0.138340 0.098814 0.156126 0.144269 0.102767 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-07 12:00:00 2024-11-07 09:30:00 2024-11-06 09:30:00 2024-11-01 12:00:00 2024-11-08 12:00:00 2024-11-06 11:00:00 2024-11-05 09:30:00 2024-11-06 09:30:00 2024-11-06 10:00:00 2024-11-06 11:00:00 221.00 409.00 223.56 119.65 160.58 165.31 134.70 378.07 394.80 198.88 227.20 421.90 240.47 116.29 156.11 160.32 138.77 409.22 382.40 205.57
2024.12 -0.186246 -0.140401 -0.191977 0.143266 -0.106017 -0.200573 0.183381 -0.186246 -0.186246 -0.128940 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-11 10:00:00 2024-12-05 12:00:00 2024-12-18 14:00:00 2024-12-11 10:00:00 2024-12-11 15:00:00 2024-12-18 09:30:00 2024-12-05 11:00:00 2024-12-12 09:30:00 2024-12-18 14:00:00 2024-12-05 12:00:00 237.27 421.57 249.55 118.05 154.75 179.12 138.83 407.46 429.00 209.90 250.14 443.94 234.00 111.69 146.64 169.56 146.08 385.24 397.82 221.54
2025.01 -0.126949 0.144766 0.113586 0.124722 0.091314 0.113586 0.142539 0.144766 0.131403 0.120267 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-10 11:00:00 2025-01-31 00:00:00 2025-01-16 09:30:00 2025-01-31 00:00:00 2025-01-30 13:00:00 2025-01-10 14:00:00 2025-01-03 09:30:00 2025-01-17 11:00:00 2025-01-21 09:30:00 2025-01-22 11:00:00 248.93 425.53 240.92 108.28 145.23 168.10 136.00 365.51 392.13 222.44 234.89 415.06 256.01 106.83 154.01 157.79 143.93 386.36 416.46 235.07
2025.02 0.239583 0.354167 -0.348958 -0.213542 -0.312500 -0.239583 0.385417 -0.244792 -0.286458 -0.333333 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-21 11:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-21 14:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-05 11:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-21 13:00:00 229.99 411.68 261.83 106.64 152.00 165.47 114.76 364.14 406.12 233.94 247.02 396.99 264.65 111.33 163.25 173.84 124.05 343.95 396.60 215.77
2025.03 -0.522936 0.532110 0.477064 -0.422018 -0.559633 -0.633028 0.550459 0.495413 0.541284 0.541284 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-12 10:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-10 09:30:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-06 14:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-13 09:30:00 2025-03-10 10:00:00 241.81 398.82 264.00 111.70 164.96 173.58 123.50 347.63 396.95 213.17 216.10 375.39 234.95 118.93 165.84 170.42 110.84 329.80 354.79 191.09
2025.04 0.228311 0.214612 -0.136986 -0.305936 0.182648 0.210046 0.301370 -0.200913 0.178082 0.328767 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-03 09:30:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-03 14:00:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-02 12:00:00 219.87 374.65 242.62 119.22 160.73 170.57 108.52 327.01 364.14 187.86 204.36 353.35 227.65 113.16 148.41 160.57 102.78 309.20 339.60 197.12
After Controlling Lever

trd_prd AAPL weight MSFT weight JPM weight XOM weight JNJ weight PG weight NVDA weight CAT weight HD weight AMZN weight AAPL entry timestamp MSFT entry timestamp JPM entry timestamp XOM entry timestamp JNJ entry timestamp PG entry timestamp NVDA entry timestamp CAT entry timestamp HD entry timestamp AMZN entry timestamp AAPL exit timestamp MSFT exit timestamp JPM exit timestamp XOM exit timestamp JNJ exit timestamp PG exit timestamp NVDA exit timestamp CAT exit timestamp HD exit timestamp AMZN exit timestamp AAPL entry price MSFT entry price JPM entry price XOM entry price JNJ entry price PG entry price NVDA entry price CAT entry price HD entry price AMZN entry price AAPL exit price MSFT exit price JPM exit price XOM exit price JNJ exit price PG exit price NVDA exit price CAT exit price HD exit price AMZN exit price
2024.11 0.080185 0.093549 -0.181818 0.089094 0.074245 0.103943 0.074245 0.117307 0.108398 0.077215 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-01 09:30:00 2024-11-07 12:00:00 2024-11-07 09:30:00 2024-11-06 09:30:00 2024-11-01 12:00:00 2024-11-08 12:00:00 2024-11-06 11:00:00 2024-11-05 09:30:00 2024-11-06 09:30:00 2024-11-06 10:00:00 2024-11-06 11:00:00 221.00 409.00 223.56 119.65 160.58 165.31 134.70 378.07 394.80 198.88 227.20 421.90 240.47 116.29 156.11 160.32 138.77 409.22 382.40 205.57
2024.12 -0.084233 -0.063499 -0.086825 0.200000 -0.047948 -0.090713 0.200000 -0.084233 -0.084233 -0.058315 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-02 09:30:00 2024-12-11 10:00:00 2024-12-05 12:00:00 2024-12-18 14:00:00 2024-12-11 10:00:00 2024-12-11 15:00:00 2024-12-18 09:30:00 2024-12-05 11:00:00 2024-12-12 09:30:00 2024-12-18 14:00:00 2024-12-05 12:00:00 237.27 421.57 249.55 118.05 154.75 179.12 138.83 407.46 429.00 209.90 250.14 443.94 234.00 111.69 146.64 169.56 146.08 385.24 397.82 221.54
2025.01 -0.181818 0.105102 0.082465 0.090550 0.066295 0.082465 0.103485 0.105102 0.095401 0.087316 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-02 09:30:00 2025-01-10 11:00:00 2025-01-31 00:00:00 2025-01-16 09:30:00 2025-01-31 00:00:00 2025-01-30 13:00:00 2025-01-10 14:00:00 2025-01-03 09:30:00 2025-01-17 11:00:00 2025-01-21 09:30:00 2025-01-22 11:00:00 248.93 425.53 240.92 108.28 145.23 168.10 136.00 365.51 392.13 222.44 234.89 415.06 256.01 106.83 154.01 157.79 143.93 386.36 416.46 235.07
2025.02 0.166667 0.166667 -0.088158 -0.053947 -0.078947 -0.060526 0.166667 -0.061842 -0.072368 -0.084211 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-03 09:30:00 2025-02-21 11:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-21 14:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-05 11:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-28 00:00:00 2025-02-21 13:00:00 229.99 411.68 261.83 106.64 152.00 165.47 114.76 364.14 406.12 233.94 247.02 396.99 264.65 111.33 163.25 173.84 124.05 343.95 396.60 215.77
2025.03 -0.097854 0.101754 0.091228 -0.078970 -0.104721 -0.118455 0.105263 0.094737 0.103509 0.103509 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-03 09:30:00 2025-03-12 10:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-10 09:30:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-06 14:00:00 2025-03-31 00:00:00 2025-03-13 09:30:00 2025-03-10 10:00:00 241.81 398.82 264.00 111.70 164.96 173.58 123.50 347.63 396.95 213.17 216.10 375.39 234.95 118.93 165.84 170.42 110.84 329.80 354.79 191.09
2025.04 0.088346 0.083045 -0.090226 -0.141353 0.070677 0.081278 0.116617 -0.132331 0.068910 0.127218 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-01 09:30:00 2025-04-03 09:30:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-03 14:00:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-03 10:00:00 2025-04-07 09:30:00 2025-04-02 12:00:00 219.87 374.65 242.62 119.22 160.73 170.57 108.52 327.01 364.14 187.86 204.36 353.35 227.65 113.16 148.41 160.57 102.78 309.20 339.60 197.12

Ledger

Original(without controlling lever)

Date Cash AAPL Qty MSFT Qty JPM Qty XOM Qty JNJ Qty PG Qty NVDA Qty CAT Qty HD Qty AMZN Qty AAPL Close MSFT Close JPM Close XOM Close JNJ Close PG Close NVDA Close CAT Close HD Close AMZN Close Portfolio Value Market Value
2024-11-01 116385.68 482 304 -397 0 615 836 733 412 365 516 222.91 410.37 222.94 114.95 160.13 165.10 135.40 379.63 392.59 197.93 881274.46 997660.14
2024-11-04 116385.68 482 304 -397 0 615 836 733 412 365 516 222.01 408.46 219.78 118.61 158.24 165.08 136.05 376.52 395.57 195.78 879508.90 995894.58
2024-11-05 218104.09 482 304 -397 0 615 836 0 412 365 516 223.45 411.46 221.49 118.96 158.35 165.76 139.91 383.37 400.09 199.50 787739.11 1005843.20
2024-11-06 670913.78 482 304 0 0 615 0 0 0 0 0 222.72 420.18 247.06 121.00 157.88 161.05 145.61 416.88 388.37 207.09 332181.96 1003095.74
2024-11-07 908681.78 0 0 0 0 615 0 0 0 0 0 227.48 425.43 236.38 121.15 156.73 163.41 148.88 408.21 399.44 210.05 96388.95 1005070.73
2024-11-08 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 226.96 422.54 236.98 121.11 155.47 167.71 147.63 393.37 405.90 208.18 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-11 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 224.23 418.01 239.29 120.47 155.04 166.03 145.26 396.54 408.29 206.84 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-12 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 224.23 423.03 239.56 120.35 152.64 165.84 148.29 393.01 403.08 208.91 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-13 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225.12 425.20 241.16 121.47 153.24 166.58 146.27 387.07 410.19 214.10 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-14 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.22 426.89 241.87 120.56 151.87 167.08 146.76 387.36 405.72 211.48 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-15 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225.00 415.00 245.31 119.31 154.00 169.54 141.98 384.07 408.18 202.61 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-18 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.02 415.76 245.03 120.31 154.77 170.75 140.15 384.46 410.44 201.70 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-19 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.28 417.79 243.09 118.63 153.00 170.76 147.01 382.33 406.80 204.61 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-20 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229.00 415.49 240.78 120.32 153.11 170.89 145.89 381.50 400.00 202.88 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-21 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.52 412.87 244.76 121.93 155.50 172.75 146.67 389.59 410.45 198.38 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-22 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229.87 417.00 248.55 121.79 155.17 176.28 141.95 397.49 420.00 197.12 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-25 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 232.87 418.79 250.29 119.97 155.78 177.39 136.02 405.65 428.67 201.45 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-26 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 235.06 427.99 249.97 117.97 154.52 179.31 136.92 407.83 429.52 207.86 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-27 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234.93 422.99 249.79 117.66 155.40 179.36 135.34 403.70 427.19 205.74 0.00 1004689.43
2024-11-29 1004689.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 237.33 423.46 249.72 117.96 155.01 179.26 138.25 406.11 429.13 207.89 0.00 1004689.43
2024-12-02 2004258.47 -784 -333 -769 1213 -685 -1119 1320 -457 -434 -614 239.59 430.98 246.25 117.85 154.80 179.70 138.63 402.51 426.96 210.71 -1000523.45 1003735.02
2024-12-03 2004258.47 -784 -333 -769 1213 -685 -1119 1320 -457 -434 -614 242.65 431.20 244.82 117.67 152.36 175.42 140.26 399.26 429.35 213.44 -994730.33 1009528.14
2024-12-04 2004258.47 -784 -333 -769 1213 -685 -1119 1320 -457 -434 -614 243.01 437.42 243.40 114.28 150.47 175.11 145.14 399.51 427.92 218.16 -994412.49 1009845.98
2024-12-05 1913226.49 -784 0 -769 1213 -685 -1119 0 -457 -434 0 243.04 442.62 245.48 114.78 149.52 176.03 145.06 394.98 426.54 220.55 -905112.33 1008114.16
2024-12-06 1913226.49 -784 0 -769 1213 -685 -1119 0 -457 -434 0 242.84 443.57 247.36 113.57 149.31 173.82 142.44 395.03 431.37 227.03 -907371.21 1005855.28
2024-12-09 1913226.49 -784 0 -769 1213 -685 -1119 0 -457 -434 0 246.75 446.02 243.81 112.90 149.60 170.79 138.81 399.26 429.18 226.09 -906310.14 1006916.35
2024-12-10 1913226.49 -784 0 -769 1213 -685 -1119 0 -457 -434 0 247.77 443.33 242.86 112.67 149.23 172.28 135.07 388.39 422.59 225.04 -900244.47 1012982.02
2024-12-11 1752148.30 0 0 -769 0 0 -1119 0 -457 -434 0 246.49 448.99 243.53 111.92 146.64 170.63 139.31 388.87 421.38 230.26 -738802.05 1013346.25
2024-12-12 1576093.62 0 0 -769 0 0 -1119 0 0 -434 0 247.96 449.56 241.53 111.82 146.24 170.85 137.34 380.78 414.42 228.97 -556776.00 1019317.62
2024-12-13 1576093.62 0 0 -769 0 0 -1119 0 0 -434 0 248.13 447.27 239.94 110.84 146.62 171.06 134.25 380.51 416.98 227.46 -556899.32 1019194.30
2024-12-16 1576093.62 0 0 -769 0 0 -1119 0 0 -434 0 251.04 451.59 239.58 108.47 143.85 171.14 132.00 378.92 410.71 232.93 -553990.82 1022102.80
2024-12-17 1576093.62 0 0 -769 0 0 -1119 0 0 -434 0 253.48 454.46 238.36 108.01 146.41 170.33 130.39 375.80 408.47 231.15 -551174.09 1024919.53
2024-12-18 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 248.05 437.39 230.37 106.42 144.75 169.08 128.91 363.89 393.82 220.52 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-19 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 249.79 437.03 232.96 105.51 143.58 169.19 130.68 360.37 385.02 223.29 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-20 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254.49 436.60 237.60 105.87 144.47 168.06 134.70 366.04 392.60 224.92 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-23 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 255.27 435.25 238.39 106.30 145.27 168.11 139.67 365.39 392.45 225.06 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-24 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 258.20 439.33 242.31 106.40 145.85 168.94 140.22 367.57 396.14 229.05 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-26 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259.02 438.11 243.14 106.49 145.58 170.16 139.93 367.12 395.14 227.05 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-27 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 255.59 430.53 241.17 106.48 145.05 169.53 137.01 364.86 392.86 223.75 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-30 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 252.20 424.83 239.32 105.76 143.34 167.09 137.49 363.01 389.43 221.30 0.00 1033756.10
2024-12-31 1033756.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250.42 421.50 239.71 107.57 144.62 167.65 134.29 362.76 388.99 219.39 0.00 1033756.10
2025-01-02 34254.62 -509 340 471 1151 628 675 1048 396 335 540 243.85 418.58 240.00 107.31 144.02 165.98 138.31 359.77 388.46 220.22 993703.12 1027957.74
2025-01-03 185093.26 -509 340 471 1151 628 675 0 396 335 540 243.36 423.35 243.28 107.86 144.19 165.13 144.47 363.79 389.18 224.19 856313.31 1041406.57
2025-01-06 185093.26 -509 340 471 1151 628 675 0 396 335 540 245.00 427.85 240.85 107.74 143.66 160.60 149.43 364.20 389.37 227.61 854408.12 1039501.38
2025-01-07 185093.26 -509 340 471 1151 628 675 0 396 335 540 242.21 422.37 243.17 108.75 146.23 161.30 140.14 363.00 384.23 222.11 853139.62 1038232.88
2025-01-08 185093.26 -509 340 471 1151 628 675 0 396 335 540 242.70 424.56 243.13 106.93 142.27 162.10 140.11 361.07 387.20 222.13 849815.74 1034909.00
2025-01-10 172042.50 0 340 471 1151 628 0 0 396 335 540 236.85 418.95 239.87 106.54 142.06 158.56 135.91 351.00 389.89 218.94 855099.74 1027142.24
2025-01-13 172042.50 0 340 471 1151 628 0 0 396 335 540 234.40 417.19 244.21 109.29 144.47 158.84 133.23 362.50 389.18 218.46 865281.16 1037323.66
2025-01-14 172042.50 0 340 471 1151 628 0 0 396 335 540 233.28 415.67 247.47 109.72 144.75 159.74 131.76 371.57 392.78 217.76 871390.31 1043432.81
2025-01-15 172042.50 0 340 471 1151 628 0 0 396 335 540 237.87 426.31 252.35 111.51 144.97 159.65 136.24 374.89 406.09 223.35 888297.01 1060339.51
2025-01-16 292623.21 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 396 335 540 228.26 424.58 254.27 111.32 147.77 160.50 133.57 380.55 409.33 220.66 772265.83 1064889.04
2025-01-17 445621.77 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 335 540 229.98 429.03 259.16 112.32 147.03 161.13 137.71 386.02 409.38 225.94 626635.26 1072257.03
2025-01-21 585135.87 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 540 222.64 428.50 263.03 111.47 148.15 161.72 140.83 398.36 418.43 230.71 491613.57 1076749.44
2025-01-22 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 223.83 446.20 262.84 109.53 145.27 164.74 147.07 397.61 410.10 235.01 369006.59 1081080.26
2025-01-23 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 223.66 446.71 265.95 110.15 146.64 166.15 147.22 406.40 414.39 235.42 370753.97 1082827.64
2025-01-24 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 222.78 444.06 264.84 108.66 146.82 164.12 142.62 407.63 414.50 234.85 368251.02 1080324.69
2025-01-27 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 229.86 434.56 265.85 110.17 152.89 169.66 118.42 394.98 424.87 235.42 370570.99 1082644.66
2025-01-28 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 238.26 447.20 267.14 108.04 150.38 166.19 128.99 390.29 418.83 238.15 370840.68 1082914.35
2025-01-29 712073.67 0 340 0 1151 628 0 0 0 0 0 239.36 442.33 266.58 108.67 151.15 166.23 123.70 393.23 413.42 237.07 370393.57 1082467.24
2025-01-30 808791.95 0 340 0 1151 0 0 0 0 0 0 237.59 414.99 268.23 109.57 152.87 167.41 124.65 374.98 414.50 234.64 267211.67 1076003.62
2025-01-31 1072873.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 236.00 415.06 267.30 106.83 152.15 165.99 120.07 371.44 411.98 237.68 0.00 1072873.68
2025-02-03 2072238.38 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 3358 -672 -705 -1424 228.01 410.92 266.81 107.09 151.87 168.76 116.66 361.55 408.76 237.42 -1012803.26 1059435.12
2025-02-04 2072238.38 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 3358 -672 -705 -1424 232.80 412.37 267.94 109.96 153.49 168.13 118.65 361.95 411.49 242.06 -1018356.65 1053881.73
2025-02-05 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 232.47 413.29 270.43 109.88 154.69 169.01 124.83 358.85 413.82 236.17 -1414403.65 1074394.63
2025-02-06 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 233.22 415.82 276.90 108.43 153.51 168.88 128.68 365.45 414.16 238.83 -1423011.97 1065786.31
2025-02-07 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 227.63 409.75 275.80 108.89 153.12 167.97 129.84 363.88 407.37 229.15 -1411762.55 1077035.73
2025-02-10 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 227.65 412.22 271.04 110.97 154.24 167.53 133.57 363.22 413.99 233.14 -1419011.63 1069786.65
2025-02-11 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 232.62 411.44 274.99 111.67 156.13 169.43 132.80 362.23 416.36 232.76 -1428269.16 1060529.12
2025-02-12 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 236.87 409.04 275.45 107.35 155.26 169.58 131.14 352.04 407.14 228.93 -1397500.49 1091297.79
2025-02-13 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 241.53 410.54 276.32 108.13 157.25 171.02 135.29 353.70 412.43 230.37 -1407148.49 1081649.79
2025-02-14 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 244.60 408.43 276.59 108.24 156.15 162.89 138.85 353.32 409.50 228.68 -1387594.90 1101203.38
2025-02-18 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 244.47 409.64 279.95 110.14 154.99 165.43 139.40 354.00 403.31 226.65 -1389462.82 1099335.46
2025-02-19 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 244.87 414.77 279.25 110.30 157.89 166.49 139.23 353.00 395.43 226.63 -1385259.98 1103538.30
2025-02-20 2488798.28 1041 860 -1332 -2002 -2055 -1447 0 -672 -705 -1424 245.83 416.13 266.80 112.00 159.68 167.21 140.11 349.15 394.64 222.88 -1366147.16 1122651.12
2025-02-21 2103210.87 0 860 -1332 -2002 0 -1447 0 -672 -705 0 245.55 408.21 264.24 110.69 162.30 170.23 134.43 340.04 385.30 216.58 -968974.65 1134236.22
2025-02-24 2103210.87 0 860 -1332 -2002 0 -1447 0 -672 -705 0 247.10 404.00 261.34 111.27 163.74 170.54 130.28 338.92 382.42 212.71 -967559.14 1135651.73
2025-02-25 2103210.87 0 860 -1332 -2002 0 -1447 0 -672 -705 0 247.04 397.90 257.40 109.73 166.09 172.65 126.63 342.36 393.29 212.80 -977502.18 1125708.69
2025-02-26 2103210.87 0 860 -1332 -2002 0 -1447 0 -672 -705 0 240.36 399.73 258.79 109.46 163.08 171.30 131.28 342.58 390.48 214.35 -973452.66 1129758.21
2025-02-27 2103210.87 0 860 -1332 -2002 0 -1447 0 -672 -705 0 237.30 392.53 259.05 110.15 163.73 171.97 120.15 340.00 390.27 208.74 -980460.04 1122750.83
2025-02-28 1106941.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 241.84 396.99 264.65 111.33 165.02 173.84 124.92 343.95 396.60 212.28 0.00 1106941.93
2025-03-03 106987.14 -2162 1334 1807 -3778 -3392 -3646 4457 1425 1363 2539 238.03 388.49 260.62 107.76 167.28 175.59 114.06 332.04 389.69 205.02 893048.63 1000035.77
2025-03-04 106987.14 -2162 1334 1807 -3778 -3392 -3646 4457 1425 1363 2539 235.93 388.61 250.25 107.54 165.42 173.18 115.99 326.75 381.68 203.80 881986.01 988973.15
2025-03-05 106987.14 -2162 1334 1807 -3778 -3392 -3646 4457 1425 1363 2539 235.74 401.02 251.53 105.44 165.12 174.61 117.30 338.49 386.35 208.36 945513.53 1052500.67
2025-03-06 601001.02 -2162 1334 1807 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 1363 2539 235.33 396.89 246.54 107.62 165.83 174.66 110.57 341.01 381.73 200.70 376086.04 977087.06
2025-03-07 601001.02 -2162 1334 1807 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 1363 2539 239.07 393.31 242.28 109.02 166.69 175.95 112.69 350.30 376.80 199.25 345454.07 946455.09
2025-03-10 1510733.18 -2162 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 1363 0 227.48 380.16 232.22 111.80 167.70 176.26 106.98 345.21 374.65 194.54 -615968.88 894764.30
2025-03-11 1510733.18 -2162 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 1363 0 220.84 380.45 229.14 109.16 165.86 173.12 108.76 339.77 368.16 196.59 -590160.57 920572.61
2025-03-12 1043524.98 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 1363 0 216.98 383.27 227.90 109.13 162.85 168.37 115.74 338.13 364.73 198.89 -88312.94 955212.04
2025-03-13 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 209.68 378.77 225.19 108.67 162.99 168.59 115.58 333.31 347.25 193.89 -597850.55 929253.20
2025-03-14 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 213.49 388.56 232.44 111.90 162.81 167.97 121.67 339.64 351.31 197.95 -585102.30 942001.45
2025-03-17 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 214.00 388.70 233.93 113.76 162.84 169.76 119.53 342.64 354.13 195.74 -594295.72 932808.03
2025-03-18 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 212.69 383.52 234.97 113.64 164.25 167.71 115.43 336.71 349.57 192.82 -606511.15 920592.60
2025-03-19 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 215.24 387.82 239.11 115.41 162.99 168.57 117.52 338.62 353.42 195.54 -603601.90 923501.85
2025-03-20 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 214.10 386.84 239.01 115.90 163.02 167.55 118.53 336.25 355.52 194.95 -606520.53 920583.22
2025-03-21 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 218.27 391.26 241.63 115.50 163.63 166.69 117.70 335.78 351.15 196.21 -598716.36 928387.39
2025-03-24 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 220.73 393.08 248.06 115.80 163.29 165.65 121.41 341.67 363.77 203.26 -584083.51 943020.24
2025-03-25 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 223.75 395.16 251.13 116.59 161.02 162.85 120.69 342.62 360.99 205.71 -565031.02 962072.73
2025-03-26 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 221.53 389.97 251.03 118.27 161.72 166.58 113.76 341.11 362.13 201.13 -596427.25 930676.50
2025-03-27 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 223.85 390.58 248.12 117.89 163.13 168.71 111.43 339.30 362.73 201.36 -609305.82 917797.93
2025-03-28 1527103.75 0 1334 0 -3778 -3392 -3646 0 1425 0 0 217.90 378.80 242.85 117.73 163.71 168.03 109.67 329.69 358.15 192.72 -637598.19 889505.56
2025-03-31 864640.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222.13 375.39 245.30 118.93 165.84 170.42 108.38 329.80 366.49 190.26 0.00 864640.87
2025-04-01 -135084.10 1038 572 -564 -2566 1136 1231 2777 -614 489 1750 223.19 382.19 243.66 119.04 153.25 170.56 110.15 330.57 365.52 192.17 1009407.73 874323.63
2025-04-02 209875.90 1038 572 -564 -2566 1136 1231 2777 -614 489 0 223.89 382.14 245.82 118.67 155.36 169.50 110.42 334.66 370.89 196.01 675495.97 885371.87
2025-04-03 98809.68 0 572 0 0 1136 1231 0 0 489 0 203.19 373.11 228.69 112.43 159.82 172.39 101.80 305.76 355.91 178.41 781226.52 880036.20
2025-04-04 98809.68 0 572 0 0 1136 1231 0 0 489 0 188.38 359.84 210.28 104.34 153.24 163.75 94.31 288.08 353.90 171.00 754542.47 853352.15
2025-04-07 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181.46 357.86 214.44 102.94 150.62 160.23 97.64 280.06 341.51 175.26 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-08 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172.42 354.56 216.87 100.77 150.00 158.39 96.30 273.94 335.24 170.66 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-09 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 198.85 390.49 234.34 105.80 150.97 162.32 114.33 301.01 355.39 191.10 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-10 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 190.42 381.35 227.11 99.93 148.69 163.56 107.57 289.16 353.62 181.22 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-11 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 198.15 388.45 236.20 103.14 151.73 166.91 110.93 293.45 353.86 184.87 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-14 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 202.52 387.81 234.72 103.39 154.36 169.13 110.71 298.12 357.20 182.12 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-15 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 202.14 385.73 233.13 103.10 153.62 168.47 112.20 293.43 354.11 179.59 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-16 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194.27 371.61 229.61 104.19 153.91 166.39 104.49 290.14 345.99 174.33 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-17 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 196.98 367.78 231.96 106.92 157.47 170.63 101.49 294.25 355.06 172.61 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-21 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 193.16 359.12 228.99 105.35 156.92 165.75 96.91 284.74 346.90 167.32 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-22 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 199.74 366.82 235.59 108.30 157.75 167.88 98.89 291.17 354.43 173.18 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-23 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 204.60 374.39 240.88 107.37 155.38 165.73 102.71 295.77 356.42 180.60 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-24 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 208.37 387.30 244.64 108.63 154.93 159.53 106.43 306.86 359.64 186.54 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-25 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 209.28 391.85 243.55 108.57 154.58 161.02 111.01 306.45 357.58 188.99 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-28 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 210.14 391.16 243.22 108.63 155.35 161.85 108.73 307.06 356.92 187.70 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-29 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 211.21 394.04 244.62 108.36 155.91 162.26 109.02 307.40 359.00 187.39 0.00 833245.71
2025-04-30 833245.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 210.77 390.06 242.25 105.04 155.81 161.97 106.95 303.57 357.69 181.88 0.00 833245.71
After Controlling Lever

Date Cash AAPL Qty MSFT Qty JPM Qty XOM Qty JNJ Qty PG Qty NVDA Qty CAT Qty HD Qty AMZN Qty AAPL Close MSFT Close JPM Close XOM Close JNJ Close PG Close NVDA Close CAT Close HD Close AMZN Close Portfolio Value Market Value
2024-11-01 451235.76 362 228 -813 0 462 628 551 310 274 388 222.91 410.37 222.94 114.95 160.13 165.10 135.40 379.63 392.59 197.93 547327.62 998563.38
2024-11-04 451235.76 362 228 -813 0 462 628 551 310 274 388 222.01 408.46 219.78 118.61 158.24 165.08 136.05 376.52 395.57 195.78 547626.05 998861.81
2024-11-05 527698.03 362 228 -813 0 462 628 0 310 274 388 223.45 411.46 221.49 118.96 158.35 165.76 139.91 383.37 400.09 199.50 477760.75 1005458.78
2024-11-06 744273.84 362 228 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 222.72 420.18 247.06 121.00 157.88 161.05 145.61 416.88 388.37 207.09 249366.24 993640.08
2024-11-07 922713.44 0 0 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 227.48 425.43 236.38 121.15 156.73 163.41 148.88 408.21 399.44 210.05 72409.26 995122.70
2024-11-08 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 226.96 422.54 236.98 121.11 155.47 167.71 147.63 393.37 405.90 208.18 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-11 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 224.23 418.01 239.29 120.47 155.04 166.03 145.26 396.54 408.29 206.84 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-12 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 224.23 423.03 239.56 120.35 152.64 165.84 148.29 393.01 403.08 208.91 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-13 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225.12 425.20 241.16 121.47 153.24 166.58 146.27 387.07 410.19 214.10 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-14 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.22 426.89 241.87 120.56 151.87 167.08 146.76 387.36 405.72 211.48 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-15 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225.00 415.00 245.31 119.31 154.00 169.54 141.98 384.07 408.18 202.61 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-18 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.02 415.76 245.03 120.31 154.77 170.75 140.15 384.46 410.44 201.70 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-19 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.28 417.79 243.09 118.63 153.00 170.76 147.01 382.33 406.80 204.61 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-20 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229.00 415.49 240.78 120.32 153.11 170.89 145.89 381.50 400.00 202.88 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-21 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228.52 412.87 244.76 121.93 155.50 172.75 146.67 389.59 410.45 198.38 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-22 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229.87 417.00 248.55 121.79 155.17 176.28 141.95 397.49 420.00 197.12 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-25 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 232.87 418.79 250.29 119.97 155.78 177.39 136.02 405.65 428.67 201.45 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-26 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 235.06 427.99 249.97 117.97 154.52 179.31 136.92 407.83 429.52 207.86 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-27 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234.93 422.99 249.79 117.66 155.40 179.36 135.34 403.70 427.19 205.74 0.00 994836.26
2024-11-29 994836.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 237.33 423.46 249.72 117.96 155.01 179.26 138.25 406.11 429.13 207.89 0.00 994836.26
2024-12-02 1193620.09 -355 -150 -347 1694 -309 -506 1440 -206 -196 -277 239.59 430.98 246.25 117.85 154.80 179.70 138.63 402.51 426.96 210.71 -199614.39 994005.70
2024-12-03 1193620.09 -355 -150 -347 1694 -309 -506 1440 -206 -196 -277 242.65 431.20 244.82 117.67 152.36 175.42 140.26 399.26 429.35 213.44 -195830.71 997789.38
2024-12-04 1193620.09 -355 -150 -347 1694 -309 -506 1440 -206 -196 -277 243.01 437.42 243.40 114.28 150.47 175.11 145.14 399.51 427.92 218.16 -195452.02 998168.07
2024-12-05 1276017.71 -355 0 -347 1694 -309 -506 0 -206 -196 0 243.04 442.62 245.48 114.78 149.52 176.03 145.06 394.98 426.54 220.55 -277264.02 998753.69
2024-12-06 1276017.71 -355 0 -347 1694 -309 -506 0 -206 -196 0 242.84 443.57 247.36 113.57 149.31 173.82 142.44 395.03 431.37 227.03 -279668.95 996348.76
2024-12-09 1276017.71 -355 0 -347 1694 -309 -506 0 -206 -196 0 246.75 446.02 243.81 112.90 149.60 170.79 138.81 399.26 429.18 226.09 -279958.70 996059.01
2024-12-10 1276017.71 -355 0 -347 1694 -309 -506 0 -206 -196 0 247.77 443.33 242.86 112.67 149.23 172.28 135.07 388.39 422.59 225.04 -277489.52 998528.19
2024-12-11 1331109.11 0 0 -347 0 0 -506 0 -206 -196 0 246.49 448.99 243.53 111.92 146.64 170.63 139.31 388.87 421.38 230.26 -333541.39 997567.72
2024-12-12 1251749.67 0 0 -347 0 0 -506 0 0 -196 0 247.96 449.56 241.53 111.82 146.24 170.85 137.34 380.78 414.42 228.97 -251487.33 1000262.34
2024-12-13 1251749.67 0 0 -347 0 0 -506 0 0 -196 0 248.13 447.27 239.94 110.84 146.62 171.06 134.25 380.51 416.98 227.46 -251543.62 1000206.05
2024-12-16 1251749.67 0 0 -347 0 0 -506 0 0 -196 0 251.04 451.59 239.58 108.47 143.85 171.14 132.00 378.92 410.71 232.93 -250230.26 1001519.41
2024-12-17 1251749.67 0 0 -347 0 0 -506 0 0 -196 0 253.48 454.46 238.36 108.01 146.41 170.33 130.39 375.80 408.47 231.15 -248958.02 1002791.65
2024-12-18 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 248.05 437.39 230.37 106.42 144.75 169.08 128.91 363.89 393.82 220.52 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-19 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 249.79 437.03 232.96 105.51 143.58 169.19 130.68 360.37 385.02 223.29 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-20 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254.49 436.60 237.60 105.87 144.47 168.06 134.70 366.04 392.60 224.92 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-23 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 255.27 435.25 238.39 106.30 145.27 168.11 139.67 365.39 392.45 225.06 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-24 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 258.20 439.33 242.31 106.40 145.85 168.94 140.22 367.57 396.14 229.05 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-26 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259.02 438.11 243.14 106.49 145.58 170.16 139.93 367.12 395.14 227.05 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-27 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 255.59 430.53 241.17 106.48 145.05 169.53 137.01 364.86 392.86 223.75 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-30 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 252.20 424.83 239.32 105.76 143.34 167.09 137.49 363.01 389.43 221.30 0.00 1006781.59
2024-12-31 1006781.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250.42 421.50 239.71 107.57 144.62 167.65 134.29 362.76 388.99 219.39 0.00 1006781.59
2025-01-02 371564.07 -730 246 342 836 456 490 760 287 243 392 243.85 418.58 240.00 107.31 144.02 165.98 138.31 359.77 388.46 220.22 632846.27 1004410.34
2025-01-03 480950.87 -730 246 342 836 456 490 0 287 243 392 243.36 423.35 243.28 107.86 144.19 165.13 144.47 363.79 389.18 224.19 533389.31 1014340.18
2025-01-06 480950.87 -730 246 342 836 456 490 0 287 243 392 245.00 427.85 240.85 107.74 143.66 160.60 149.43 364.20 389.37 227.61 531410.83 1012361.70
2025-01-07 480950.87 -730 246 342 836 456 490 0 287 243 392 242.21 422.37 243.17 108.75 146.23 161.30 140.14 363.00 384.23 222.11 531502.75 1012453.62
2025-01-08 480950.87 -730 246 342 836 456 490 0 287 243 392 242.70 424.56 243.13 106.93 142.27 162.10 140.11 361.07 387.20 222.13 528910.47 1009861.34
2025-01-10 386798.27 0 246 342 836 456 0 0 287 243 392 236.85 418.95 239.87 106.54 142.06 158.56 135.91 351.00 389.89 218.94 620248.79 1007047.06
2025-01-13 386798.27 0 246 342 836 456 0 0 287 243 392 234.40 417.19 244.21 109.29 144.47 158.84 133.23 362.50 389.18 218.46 627637.88 1014436.15
2025-01-14 386798.27 0 246 342 836 456 0 0 287 243 392 233.28 415.67 247.47 109.72 144.75 159.74 131.76 371.57 392.78 217.76 632069.53 1018867.80
2025-01-15 386798.27 0 246 342 836 456 0 0 287 243 392 237.87 426.31 252.35 111.51 144.97 159.65 136.24 374.89 406.09 223.35 644331.14 1031129.41
2025-01-16 474353.69 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 287 243 392 228.26 424.58 254.27 111.32 147.77 160.50 133.57 380.55 409.33 220.66 560077.08 1034430.77
2025-01-17 585239.01 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 243 392 229.98 429.03 259.16 112.32 147.03 161.13 137.71 386.02 409.38 225.94 454534.40 1039773.41
2025-01-21 686438.79 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 392 222.64 428.50 263.03 111.47 148.15 161.72 140.83 398.36 418.43 230.71 356594.64 1043033.43
2025-01-22 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 223.83 446.20 262.84 109.53 145.27 164.74 147.07 397.61 410.10 235.01 267575.40 1046161.63
2025-01-23 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 223.66 446.71 265.95 110.15 146.64 166.15 147.22 406.40 414.39 235.42 268843.90 1047430.13
2025-01-24 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 222.78 444.06 264.84 108.66 146.82 164.12 142.62 407.63 414.50 234.85 267028.44 1045614.67
2025-01-27 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 229.86 434.56 265.85 110.17 152.89 169.66 118.42 394.98 424.87 235.42 268721.72 1047307.95
2025-01-28 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 238.26 447.20 267.14 108.04 150.38 166.19 128.99 390.29 418.83 238.15 268905.92 1047492.15
2025-01-29 778586.23 0 246 0 836 456 0 0 0 0 0 239.36 442.33 266.58 108.67 151.15 166.23 123.70 393.23 413.42 237.07 268585.70 1047171.93
2025-01-30 848814.79 0 246 0 836 0 0 0 0 0 0 237.59 414.99 268.23 109.57 152.87 167.41 124.65 374.98 414.50 234.64 193688.06 1042502.85
2025-01-31 1040229.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 236.00 415.06 267.30 106.83 152.15 165.99 120.07 371.44 411.98 237.68 0.00 1040229.43
2025-02-03 1039692.54 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 1452 -169 -178 -359 228.01 410.92 266.81 107.09 151.87 168.76 116.66 361.55 408.76 237.42 -2760.31 1036932.23
2025-02-04 1039692.54 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 1452 -169 -178 -359 232.80 412.37 267.94 109.96 153.49 168.13 118.65 361.95 411.49 242.06 -476.23 1039216.31
2025-02-05 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 232.47 413.29 270.43 109.88 154.69 169.01 124.83 358.85 413.82 236.17 -172139.84 1047673.30
2025-02-06 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 233.22 415.82 276.90 108.43 153.51 168.88 128.68 365.45 414.16 238.83 -173487.38 1046325.76
2025-02-07 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 227.63 409.75 275.80 108.89 153.12 167.97 129.84 363.88 407.37 229.15 -174365.89 1045447.25
2025-02-10 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 227.65 412.22 271.04 110.97 154.24 167.53 133.57 363.22 413.99 233.14 -175724.48 1044088.66
2025-02-11 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 232.62 411.44 274.99 111.67 156.13 169.43 132.80 362.23 416.36 232.76 -175914.56 1043898.58
2025-02-12 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 236.87 409.04 275.45 107.35 155.26 169.58 131.14 352.04 407.14 228.93 -166645.10 1053168.04
2025-02-13 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 241.53 410.54 276.32 108.13 157.25 171.02 135.29 353.70 412.43 230.37 -166649.01 1053164.13
2025-02-14 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 244.60 408.43 276.59 108.24 156.15 162.89 138.85 353.32 409.50 228.68 -160694.22 1059118.92
2025-02-18 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 244.47 409.64 279.95 110.14 154.99 165.43 139.40 354.00 403.31 226.65 -160997.35 1058815.79
2025-02-19 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 244.87 414.77 279.25 110.30 157.89 166.49 139.23 353.00 395.43 226.63 -158794.01 1061019.13
2025-02-20 1219813.14 724 404 -336 -505 -519 -365 0 -169 -178 -359 245.83 416.13 266.80 112.00 159.68 167.21 140.11 349.15 394.64 222.88 -153279.12 1066534.02
2025-02-21 1236467.44 0 404 -336 -505 0 -365 0 -169 -178 0 245.55 408.21 264.24 110.69 162.30 170.23 134.43 340.04 385.30 216.58 -167950.36 1068517.08
2025-02-24 1236467.44 0 404 -336 -505 0 -365 0 -169 -178 0 247.10 404.00 261.34 111.27 163.74 170.54 130.28 338.92 382.42 212.71 -168380.93 1068086.51
2025-02-25 1236467.44 0 404 -336 -505 0 -365 0 -169 -178 0 247.04 397.90 257.40 109.73 166.09 172.65 126.63 342.36 393.29 212.80 -172030.16 1064437.28
2025-02-26 1236467.44 0 404 -336 -505 0 -365 0 -169 -178 0 240.36 399.73 258.79 109.46 163.08 171.30 131.28 342.58 390.48 214.35 -170665.78 1065801.66
2025-02-27 1236467.44 0 404 -336 -505 0 -365 0 -169 -178 0 237.30 392.53 259.05 110.15 163.73 171.97 120.15 340.00 390.27 208.74 -173781.54 1062685.90
2025-02-28 1059533.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 241.84 396.99 264.65 111.33 165.02 173.84 124.92 343.95 396.60 212.28 0.00 1059533.40
2025-03-03 859900.13 -404 255 345 -706 -634 -682 852 272 260 485 238.03 388.49 260.62 107.76 167.28 175.59 114.06 332.04 389.69 205.02 179176.37 1039076.50
2025-03-04 859900.13 -404 255 345 -706 -634 -682 852 272 260 485 235.93 388.61 250.25 107.54 165.42 173.18 115.99 326.75 381.68 203.80 176987.08 1036887.21
2025-03-05 859900.13 -404 255 345 -706 -634 -682 852 272 260 485 235.74 401.02 251.53 105.44 165.12 174.61 117.30 338.49 386.35 208.36 189102.73 1049002.86
2025-03-06 954335.81 -404 255 345 -706 -634 -682 0 272 260 485 235.33 396.89 246.54 107.62 165.83 174.66 110.57 341.01 381.73 200.70 80299.89 1034635.70
2025-03-07 954335.81 -404 255 345 -706 -634 -682 0 272 260 485 239.07 393.31 242.28 109.02 166.69 175.95 112.69 350.30 376.80 199.25 74534.74 1028870.55
2025-03-10 1128072.21 -404 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 260 0 227.48 380.16 232.22 111.80 167.70 176.26 106.98 345.21 374.65 194.54 -109116.92 1018955.29
2025-03-11 1128072.21 -404 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 260 0 220.84 380.45 229.14 109.16 165.86 173.12 108.76 339.77 368.16 196.59 -104355.61 1023716.60
2025-03-12 1040767.81 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 260 0 216.98 383.27 227.90 109.13 162.85 168.37 115.74 338.13 364.73 198.89 -10586.01 1030181.80
2025-03-13 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 209.68 378.77 225.19 108.67 162.99 168.59 115.58 333.31 347.25 193.89 -107788.39 1025224.82
2025-03-14 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 213.49 388.56 232.44 111.90 162.81 167.97 121.67 339.64 351.31 197.95 -105313.60 1027699.61
2025-03-17 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 214.00 388.70 233.93 113.76 162.84 169.76 119.53 342.64 354.13 195.74 -107014.86 1025998.35
2025-03-18 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 212.69 383.52 234.97 113.64 164.25 167.71 115.43 336.71 349.57 192.82 -109359.84 1023653.37
2025-03-19 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 215.24 387.82 239.11 115.41 162.99 168.57 117.52 338.62 353.42 195.54 -108781.12 1024232.09
2025-03-20 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 214.10 386.84 239.01 115.90 163.02 167.55 118.53 336.25 355.52 194.95 -109344.98 1023668.23
2025-03-21 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 218.27 391.26 241.63 115.50 163.63 166.69 117.70 335.78 351.15 196.21 -107863.54 1025149.67
2025-03-24 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 220.73 393.08 248.06 115.80 163.29 165.65 121.41 341.67 363.77 203.26 -105084.32 1027928.89
2025-03-25 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 223.75 395.16 251.13 116.59 161.02 162.85 120.69 342.62 360.99 205.71 -101504.48 1031508.73
2025-03-26 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 221.53 389.97 251.03 118.27 161.72 166.58 113.76 341.11 362.13 201.13 -107412.39 1025600.82
2025-03-27 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 223.85 390.58 248.12 117.89 163.13 168.71 111.43 339.30 362.73 201.36 -109827.48 1023185.73
2025-03-28 1133013.21 0 255 0 -706 -634 -682 0 272 0 0 217.90 378.80 242.85 117.73 163.71 168.03 109.67 329.69 358.15 192.72 -115236.30 1017776.91
2025-03-31 1013109.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222.13 375.39 245.30 118.93 165.84 170.42 108.38 329.80 366.49 190.26 0.00 1013109.68
2025-04-01 741237.97 401 221 -371 -1185 439 476 1074 -404 189 677 223.19 382.19 243.66 119.04 153.25 170.56 110.15 330.57 365.52 192.17 274899.42 1016137.39
2025-04-02 874688.21 401 221 -371 -1185 439 476 1074 -404 189 0 223.89 382.14 245.82 118.67 155.36 169.50 110.42 334.66 370.89 196.01 144781.35 1019469.56
2025-04-03 723552.74 0 221 0 0 439 476 0 0 189 0 203.19 373.11 228.69 112.43 159.82 172.39 101.80 305.76 355.91 178.41 301942.92 1025495.66
2025-04-04 723552.74 0 221 0 0 439 476 0 0 189 0 188.38 359.84 210.28 104.34 153.24 163.75 94.31 288.08 353.90 171.00 291629.10 1015181.84
2025-04-07 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181.46 357.86 214.44 102.94 150.62 160.23 97.64 280.06 341.51 175.26 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-08 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172.42 354.56 216.87 100.77 150.00 158.39 96.30 273.94 335.24 170.66 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-09 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 198.85 390.49 234.34 105.80 150.97 162.32 114.33 301.01 355.39 191.10 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-10 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 190.42 381.35 227.11 99.93 148.69 163.56 107.57 289.16 353.62 181.22 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-11 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 198.15 388.45 236.20 103.14 151.73 166.91 110.93 293.45 353.86 184.87 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-14 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 202.52 387.81 234.72 103.39 154.36 169.13 110.71 298.12 357.20 182.12 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-15 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 202.14 385.73 233.13 103.10 153.62 168.47 112.20 293.43 354.11 179.59 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-16 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194.27 371.61 229.61 104.19 153.91 166.39 104.49 290.14 345.99 174.33 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-17 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 196.98 367.78 231.96 106.92 157.47 170.63 101.49 294.25 355.06 172.61 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-21 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 193.16 359.12 228.99 105.35 156.92 165.75 96.91 284.74 346.90 167.32 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-22 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 199.74 366.82 235.59 108.30 157.75 167.88 98.89 291.17 354.43 173.18 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-23 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 204.60 374.39 240.88 107.37 155.38 165.73 102.71 295.77 356.42 180.60 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-24 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 208.37 387.30 244.64 108.63 154.93 159.53 106.43 306.86 359.64 186.54 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-25 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 209.28 391.85 243.55 108.57 154.58 161.02 111.01 306.45 357.58 188.99 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-28 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 210.14 391.16 243.22 108.63 155.35 161.85 108.73 307.06 356.92 187.70 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-29 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 211.21 394.04 244.62 108.36 155.91 162.26 109.02 307.40 359.00 187.39 0.00 1007410.80
2025-04-30 1007410.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 210.77 390.06 242.25 105.04 155.81 161.97 106.95 303.57 357.69 181.88 0.00 1007410.80

Performance Analysis

initial capital: 1M

End-of-Day Market Value Comparison

Drawndowns Comparison

Strategy Metrics Summary

Metrics Original After Controlling Lever
alpha(benchmark: S&P 500) -0.13% 0.01%
beta(benchmark: S&P 500) 0.32 0.06
Cumulative Return -16.48% 0.89%
Geometric Mean Return -31.06% 1.84%
Average Return per Trade -0.27% 0.01%
Annualized Volatility 27.28% 6.76%
Sharpe Ratio(rf=0.046) -1.14 0.27
Max Drawdown 26.63% 5.72%
Average Number of Trades Per Year 240 240

p.s. The reason of high average number of trades per year(240) is that there are 10 stocks in our portfolio, and we execute one buy and one sell trade per stock per month. But for each stock, the average number of trades per year is 24.

Performance Analysis

  • Growth trajectory: Without leverage control, the portfolio ended below the starting capital ($1 M → $0.83M), reflecting a net loss. With leverage control, it modestly grew ($1 M → $1.01M), demonstrating sustainable gains.
  • Cumulative & geometric returns: Controlled leverage turned a deep drawdown into positive growth, and the market value of portfolio kept higher than at begining over the period, confirming mean reversion works when risk is contained.
  • Per-trade efficiency: Average return per trade improved from –0.27% to +0.01%, indicating higher hit rate and profitability.
  • Risk metrics: Volatility dropped from 27.28% to 6.76%, and max drawdown shrank from 26.63% to 5.72%, showcasing tighter drawdown control.
  • Sharpe ratio shift: From –1.14 (underperforming risk-free) to 0.27 (delivering positive risk-adjusted return).

This shows that mean reversion signals can generate returns, but only disciplined risk management is necessary, such as controlling lever and limiting the weight of single asset. Leverage control transforms a volatile, loss‐making process into a stable, profitable strategy.

Limitations and Future Enhancements

Even with leverage control, the current implementation has several limitations:

  1. Simplistic Signal Framework:
    • Relies solely on fixed-threshold scores for EMA deviation, MACD, ADX, ATR, IV, and yield spread.
    • Does not adapt thresholds to changing market regimes (e.g., high-volatility vs. low-volatility periods).
  2. Lack of Transaction Cost Modeling:
    • Omits commissions, slippage, and spreads, which can erode returns—especially for short-term or high-turnover strategies.
  3. Ignoring Market Microstructure:
    • Hourly and daily data may not capture intraday liquidity constraints or order-book dynamics, leading to unrealistic execution assumptions.
  4. No Regime Detection or Regime-Based Allocation:
    • Treats all periods equally; fails to switch off mean reversion signals during strong trending environments (e.g., bull/bear markets).
  5. Uniform Indicator Weighting:
    • Assigns fixed weights to each indicator; does not account for their varying predictive power over time. A dynamic or machine-learning–based weighting scheme could improve signal quality.
  6. Single Timeframe Analysis:
    • Uses daily and hourly frequencies but ignores higher-frequency signals or multi-timeframe confirmation that can reduce false signals.
  7. Tail Risk and Black Swan Events:
    • Lacks a stress-test mechanism for extreme market moves or systemic shocks. Consider adding volatility overlays or drawdown limits.

Future Enhancements:

  • Implement regime-switching to adapt thresholds and weights.

  • Incorporate transaction cost estimates into portfolio optimization.

  • Explore multi-timeframe signals and alternative data (e.g., sentiment, order flow).

  • Use adaptive indicator weighting via machine learning or Bayesian updating.

  • Add tail-risk protection, such as option hedges or dynamic stop adjustments.